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更新:2019-10-15 17:30:20  |  来源:转载  |  阅读:310

Report: Hong Kongbecoming 'mere second-tier' Chinese city



Hong Kong is losing its edge as a globalfinancial and commercial center, and the territory's economic clout will beovershadowed by China'smajor cities by 2022. That's the argument in an August 27 report releasedby Trigger Trend, an independent Chinese research firm based in the southernmetropolis of Guangzhou.The report emerged just days before Beijing declared it would not countenance open nominations in theplanned 2017 popular election for Hong Kong'schief executive, and its findings are likely to stoke further anxiety about theformer British colony's economic and political future.

香港作为金融和商业中心的优势正在慢慢消失,并且在2022年之前,这个地区的经济影响力就会被中国其他主要城市超越。 这是Trigger Trend于8月27号发布的报告中的观点。TriggerTrend是位于南方大都市—广州的一所独立的中国研究机构。在该报告发布后没几天,北京就宣布不再支持2017年的香港特首普选开放提名。报告结论可能会使人们对这个前英国殖民地的经济和政治前途更加忧虑。

In the wake of Beijing's decision, HongKong's democracy advocates now face a hard choice between carrying out what some havecalled a "nuclear option" to occupy the city's Central financial district en masse, which coulddisrupt businesses, or swallowing what they call a "fake election" for the Chief Executive, the head ofHong Kong's government. Either way, Beijingsays it does not plan to yield to acts of civil disobedience in thespecial administrative region, even if protests make investors or businessowners jittery.


In taking a hard-line stance againstgranting true democracy to Hong Kong, the Chinese government has madeclear to the rest of China— as well as Taiwan, which Beijing considers a rogueprovince — that threats of civil disobedience will not lead to politicalconcessions. The central government probably also believes that it can now casta menacing shadow over Hong Kong with itsincreasing economic weight. The report by Trigger Trend does not appear to becommissioned by the Chinese government, but the report's conclusions have beenwidely publicized in mainland media and align nicely with the centralgovernment's unspoken message to Hong Kongers: The special administrativeregion is no longer very special.

通过在反对给予香港真正的民主上采取强硬立场,中国政府已明确地向包括台湾(北京方面认为的不听话的省份)在内的中国其他地区表明她不会对任何形式的温和抵抗威胁妥协。随着中国经济实力的增强,中央政府可能认为她能够给香港投下一层威胁的阴影。Trigger Trend的这份报告似乎不是受中国政府的委托,但该报告的结论已经在大陆被媒体广泛宣传,并且与中央政府对香港人的潜台词非常吻合:这个特别行政区已经不再特别。

To bolster its claim, the report statesthat Hong Kong's annual GDP growth rate has hovered around two percent inrecent years, while major regional centers in China have been growing at overseven percent per year. Hong Kong's 2013 GDP, at an estimated $261 billion,already pales in comparison to Shanghai's, at $354 billion, and Beijing's,at $317 billion. The report also states that at the time of its handover fromthe British in 1997, Hong Kong's GDP was 15.6 percent of China's national total; by 2013,the city's share had shrunk to 2.9 percent.


According to Trigger Trend, if currentgrowth rates continue, the southern cities of Guangzhouand Shenzhen as well as the northern municipalityof Tianjian will likely overtake Hong Kong in terms of GDP by 2017.


Inland metropolises such as Chongqing, Chengdu, and Wuhan will catch up by2022. "In the ranking of Chinese cities by economics, Hong Kong may become a mere second tier city" by 2022, the reportwarned.


As the mainland's foremost commercial city,Shanghai is often seen as Hong Kong's direct competitor. Shanghaiannounced the establishment of a free trade zone (FTZ) inSept. 2013, setting up tariff-free ports and offering tax and policy breaks toforeign investors. While the Shanghai FTZ has so far offered more hype than substance, Hong Kong's policymakers have warned that its businesses must be prepared forcompetition. Some in Hong Kong, particularly members of its business community,have also bought into the logic that the fight for democracy harmsthe territory's economic competitiveness, or at least presents a serious distraction from the issues that concern Hong Kongresidents' livelihoods, like employment and social welfare.


But Hong Kong'sposition as a global financial center rests on more than just the size of itsGDP. The city boasts superb infrastructure, a well-established legal system,and a cosmopolitan culture that no mainland city, including Beijingor Shanghai,has yet been able to replicate. In 2012, the Economist Intelligence Unit, aresearch outfit, ranked Hong Kong the fourth-most competitive city in theworld, far ahead of Beijing (ranked 39th) and Shanghai (ranked 43rd).Hong Kong is also a muchwealthier city in terms of per-capita income than itsmainland peers. What's more, it remains a golden goose for China in terms of its function as agateway to international investment and human capital. Investors, expatriates,and new immigrants flock to Hong Kong becausethe city is perceived to be more livable, with safer food, cleaner air, freermedia, and a fairer judiciary than Chinese metropolises.


The hard data on Hong Kong's decline in economic clout relative to the mainland may beundisputable, but it remains a first class global city on the strength of itssoft power. Hong Kong's ability to maintain its advantages is largely based onits relative political autonomy from Chinaand the strength of its civic institutions — the very things that recentrumblings from Beijingimperil. Should it lose its uniqueness, Hong Kong's future as a second tiercity in Chinais all but assured.



CaptainCommonsense• 2 days ago
Second-tier city in a second-tier regime.


Trollman Baggins CaptainCommonsense• 2 days ago


myopinion CaptainCommonsense• a day ago
second tier city because of many troublemaking second tier people in Hong Kong.


Frankmyopinion • a day ago
that makes no sense


FrankPhillipWoon • a day ago
3,500 years of history, and yet the Chinesestill can't flush toilet paper down the toilet. They have to leave"dirty" toilet tissue paper in a small bin beside the toilet. Howrevolting.


JoeBlow Frank• a day ago
the fallacy is, China has 5,000 years of history,not 3,500. Let's be frank, this frank is nothing but bunch of hot air, I sawhim wiping his butt with his bare fingers, he eats his own boogers after hepicked his nose. how disgusting


Trollman Baggins • 2 days ago
British scum sold out the people of Hong Kongand the ideals of freedom by giving this back to the ethnophobic, racist,military state of China.It set the whole world backwards. The British are so self-hating and passiveaggressive since they lost their empire. Now they are just destroying themselveson purpose.


thefox • a day ago
China'ssupposed GDP growth of 7.5% a year have been its pipe dream for the last 3years. All you got left are lies about being a number one economy which willnever happen. People around the world have boycotted CHINESE products.
China'seconomy is now on a steep dive.


PhillipWoon thefox • a day ago
Keep thinking that, you white trash. We'llsurpass you and reclaim the top of the world that was lost in 1821, when China was thenumber 1 economy in the world. You whites' days in the sun is over....


FrankPhillipWoon • a day ago
1.3 billion people and not a single NobelPrize in Medicine, Science, Economics or anything important. How utterlypathetic. The chinese have no imagination, no creativity, no critical thinkingskills, no originality. They are PATHETIC


CaptainCommonsenseFrank• a day ago
They're brilliant at stealing otherpeoples' discoveries though!


JoeBlow thefox • a day ago
every nations on earth would rather haveeconomy like China's.Jealous much???? you should be.
The Chinese gov't has been planning to makeHK not to be a financial capital rather it will become a largest & modernport for trading, While Shanghai will be replacing HongKong to become the FinancialCapital in the near future.
Unless mainlanders can change theirun-cultured way of life, no mainland Chinese city can surpass Hong Kong. Just ask anyone who has lived in mainland China, about its general lack ofcivility, chaotic traffics, noise pollution, corruptions... i can go on....