Updated 8 minutes agoMon 17 Jul 2017, 1:03pm
Photo: Housing affordability challenges mean young people could be forced to rent forever. (AAP: Tracey Nearmy)
The number of Australian homeowners has been falling for three decades, and it could take just as long to turn the situation around, researchers say.
Independent think tank the Grattan Institute analysed census data and found home ownership was declining among people aged under 55.
It has prompted warnings many young Australians are destined to be "permanent renters".
In 1986, 58 per cent of 25 to 34-year-olds owned their home. That number is now 45 per cent, and the drop has been particularly dramatic in the last decade.
在1986年， 25到34岁的年轻人中百分之58的人拥有房产。 而如今这个数字降到了百分之45。 在过去的十年里， 这种下滑趋势尤其猛烈。
"That might have been written off as a result of the delay in household formation — people are getting married and starting families later, so they're buying homes later — but we see the same trends amongst older age groups as well," said Brendan Coates, a fellow at the Grattan Institute.
Ownership in the 35–44 and 45–54 age groups has also fallen over the same period.
在同一时间段内， 35到44岁以及45到54岁的人群中， 有房族的比率都出现了下滑。
Australia's housing boom is no secret, and has been going for 20 years, Mr Coates said. It has been more acute in recent years, with house prices across the country rising 40 per cent in the past five years.
寇慈先生说大利亚房地产市场的蓬勃发展并不是什么稀奇的事情， 这种繁荣景象已经持续了20年。 近年来这种现象愈演愈烈， 在过去的5年里全国的房地产价格猛增了百分之40。
"What these numbers show is that there's clearly a problem linked to housing affordability. It shows we have a really big problem in ensuring the younger generations can afford to purchase a home," he said.
Terry Burke, a professor of housing studies at Swinburne University, said the drop in home ownership would have far-reaching consequences.
"The younger generation of Australians has to appreciate a good proportion of them will not become homeowners in their lifetime, they probably will be permanent renters," he said.
"For example, in 1981, the median mortgage for 25-34-year-olds was only 17 per cent of their household income, but by 2011 that was already 25 per cent.
“澳大利亚的年轻人必须清醒地认识到， 他们中很大一部分人一辈子都不会拥有自己的房产，他们可能会成为终生租客，”特瑞说：“举个例子，在1981年25到34岁之间的年轻人所背负的房贷只占家庭收入的百分之17. 而到了2011年， 这一比率升到百分之25。
"They borrowed a lot more to achieve a similar home purchase than their parents would have 20 or 30 years ago.
"Back in the 60s and 70s and 80s you didn't have to have a dual income to become a home purchaser, now it's virtually an essential requirement."
“在60年代、70年代和80年代， 你不需要依靠双份收入就能买房 而；现在双收入实际上已经成了买房的入门条件。”
Professor Burke said single-income households had been almost cut out of home ownership.
Population outstrips construction
Much of the problem comes down to supply and demand. Low interest rates mean people are able to take out higher mortgages, often with the help of equity from a previous property purchase. A population boom in metropolitan areas has fuelled the fire.
住房问题很大程度上源于需求和供给的不平衡。 银行低息贷款让已经拥有房产的人常常能够拿到更多贷款。 另外， 市区附近的人口大幅度增加也让住房问题火上浇油。
Mr Coates said housing construction had not kept up with demand, and there needed to be an increase in medium-density development in cities like Melbourne and Sydney.
"You've got a backlog of a decade that you would have to overcome in order to see those prices come down or at least stabilise," he said.
"We're not talking about high-rise apartment buildings, we're talking about two to three to four-storey townhouses.
"People are wanting these kinds of homes that are close to jobs and close to amenities, but it's the sort of thing the market is not supplying at the moment because it's difficult to subdivide and build in those inner and middle ring suburbs."
“你现在的问题是过去十年累积的结果， 所以必须要解决这些老问题才能让房产价格降温或者至少保持稳定，”他说：“不是说要建造高层楼房，而是要见两层、三层到四层的小楼。”他解释道：“大家需要这种类型的房子， 离工作地点和各种设施都比较近。但现在的市场并没有提供多少这种住宅楼，因为在那些内城区细分地块建造这种住宅楼的难度比较大。”
Baby boomers prop up ownership rates
There has been a spike in home ownership for one demographic — baby boomers — who were able to get into the market before the boom of the last two decades.
In Melbourne, the ratio of income-to-house prices has gone from being five times the median income in the 1990s to seven today.
Median house price 房屋价格中位数
2007 2010 2013 2015 2017
Bundoora $331k $515k $464k $572k $747k
Werribee $223k $285k $281k $315k $434k
Pascoe Vale $369k $658k $582k $725k $816k
Ringwood $351k $563k $471k $690k $845k
Frankston $259k $364k $350k $405k $557k
Source: REIV, March 2017 数据源自维多利亚房产研究所在2017年3月发布的报告
As the population has aged, the number of homeowners over 65 has grown, which has propped up the overall home ownership rate, according to Mr Coates.
"They did have to pay high interest rates through the early 90s, but the ratio of house price-to-income was so much lower," he said.
"Older households didn't have to pay such a large multiple of their income, then when interest rates fell through the 2000s they benefited from the asset price appreciation that came from that."
据寇慈先生分析， 由于人口老化， 65岁以上的拥有房产的人数增多，这拉高了全国人口中有房族的比率。 “他们的确在90年代初付了很高的利息， 但那时房价与收入相比跟现在低很多，”寇慈说：“老一辈的家庭需要支付的房贷并没有收入的这么多倍。到了2000年以后利率不断降低，这些购房者从房产增值潮中获益颇多。 ”
Mr Coates said governments and policy-makers needed to act now, because turning the tide could take decades.
"It took 20 or 30 years for this problem to develop, and it will take 20 years for the problem to be solved, that's why we need to start now," he said.
"Without action there is a greater risk that millennials will miss out on the benefits of home ownership and those benefits are substantial.
“住房问题用了二三十年的时间发展到今天这么严峻的地步， 解决问题也需要花上20年时间。 这是为什么我们需要马上采取行动的原因，”他说：“如果我们不采取行动， 那么很有可能我们的千禧一代会完全享受不到拥有住房的好处。有房子会给人带来很多好处。
"It's a way of saving in a tax-preferred vehicle, there are tax breaks available to owners that are not available to renters, it's also much more secure as a form of tenure."
Professor Burke said tenancy laws were not set up to cater for long-term renting.
"The rental market historically has been structured on the assumption you're going to be a short-term renter and will transition into ownership," he said.
"Rental security in Australia is very weak compared to many other western countries, so you'll live in fear for much of your life that you might be evicted and you won't have this sense of home."
“房屋租赁市场历来都建立在租客只是短期租房， 然后会过渡到有自己的房子这种假设的基础上的，”他说：“澳大利亚对租客的保障同其他西方国家比较是比较弱的。所以你在一生的大部分时间里都会担心自己会被屋主赶出去， 而且你也不会有家的概念。”
Young families pushed to the fringes
Professor Burke said cities were restructuring because of the housing market.
"You'll have a city of predominately higher-income professional households, and lower-income family households on the outskirts, so there could be issues around more polarised cities," he said.
伯克教授说由于住房市场的变化，城市的结构也随之发生了变化。 他说：“你会看到城市里主要住着专业家庭， 而那些低收入家庭都住在远郊。如此这样，城市变得两极分化， 可能会带来一些问题。”
Many first home buyers are being forced further and further out, into growth corridors and new suburbs on the metropolitan fringe. Places without reliable public transport and established amenities.
很多首次购房者被迫搬到越来越远的地区， 搬到位于城市边缘的新小区或者增长中的铁路带。 这些地方没有可靠的公共交通， 也没有完善的设施。
They're buying apartments and townhouses, which are not what Australians are used to raising a family in.
In Victoria, figures from the State Revenue Office show the most applicants for the first home buyers grant are coming from these suburbs.
State governments need to make it easier to subdivide in the inner and middle ring suburbs, and improve the lifestyle in the outer suburbs, Mr Coates said.
"You need to lift density along transport corridors. And then you need to fix transport infrastructure to make it easier to move into the city from the suburban fringe."
寇慈先生认为州政府需要在内城区精细规划， 在外城区改善民生。 他说：“你需要在铁路公路沿线的小区提高人口密度， 然后调整交通基础建设， 让人们可以更方便地从边远郊区进城。”
It seems those helping drive the prices up are already in the market and making it harder for those trying to get a foot in the door.
Investors have been able to buy properties using the equity of their own home, benefiting from the boom of the last two decades, Mr Coates said.
"The most obvious thing the Commonwealth Government could do is reduce the capital gains discount and abolish negative gearing. It wouldn't solve the problem but it would help," he said.
他建议：“联邦政府可以做的最明显的改革措施是降低资产增值税折扣（译者注：澳洲投资房卖出后， 政府仅对房产增值的50%收取增值税），并废除利息扣税（译者注：澳洲政府对投资房的房租收税， 但可以扣除银行利息后计算税收额）。这些改革虽然不会解决问题， 但可以缓和一下。”
Adding home ownership to the aged pension asset test would also go a long way. "We're not targeting those most in need," he said.
"Half of all pension payments go to households with half a million dollars in net wealth, and 20 per cent of payments go to households with more than a million in net wealth."
另外， 把房产计算到养老金领取者的资产评估里也可以大有助益。 “我们并不是针对那些最需要帮助的群体，”他说：“一半养老金发放给了那些家庭净资产达到50万澳元的家庭， 百分之20发放给了那些净资产超过100万澳元的家庭。”